Leading-Magnitude Assumption
リーディング・マグニチュード・アサンプション
(rīdingū magunichūdo asanpushon)
noun
Definition:
The belief that one factor overwhelmingly outweighs all others in determining an outcome. A leading-magnitude assumption treats a single cause, variable, or influence as the primary driver in a complex system, even when other factors may matter more, either individually or collectively, or when the primary driver could change or has already changed over time.
Example Sentence:
Debates about elections often fall into a leading-magnitude assumption, with people insisting that demographics, or the economy, or media bias is the one decisive cause, ignoring how multiple forces interact.
Pro-Massie Example Sentence -
Supporters of Thomas Massie argue that critics fall into a leading-magnitude assumption when they claim his opposition to AIPAC is rooted in antisemitism, noting that such accusations ignore his consistent philosophy of reducing foreign influence, limiting federal overreach, and keeping U.S. policy decisions accountable to American voters rather than outside interests.
Pro-Trump Example Sentence -
Supporters of Donald Trump argue that critics often rely on a leading-magnitude assumption when they claim his pro-Israel policies are dictated by donor support or by his family’s connections through Jared Kushner. They point out that Trump’s record shows independent decision-making, including policies he pursued because he believed they strengthened America’s position abroad, not because he was beholden to any outside group. From this perspective, Trump’s alignment with AIPAC reflects deliberate strategic choices on national security and diplomacy, while Massie’s criticisms of AIPAC come from his philosophical preference for minimizing foreign involvement in American policymaking.
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